Boris Bounce Yet To Materialise For Ealing Property
Agents still feeling pain despite Brexit and election result
House in Carlton Road went for £3,875,000. Picture: Google Streetview
The much anticipated rebound in the Ealing property market seems to have been slow to materialise, disappointing expectations that there would be a sharp pick up after the general election.
The latest numbers from the Land Registry show that activity in the market remained very low at the end of last year with just 66 sales being reported so far in the W5 postcode area and 35 in W13.
Donald Collins, Sales Director at goview London said, "“It’s worth noting these figures are to the end of 2019. Any post-election bounce, the election was 12th December, would not be felt until now given in my 15 years in the Industry the first couple of weeks in January are always a bit quiet, holidays etc. Furthermore, it takes approximately 2 months to legally transact and 2 months for Land Registry to record the figures, so any report on a house price increase would likely to be summer 2020 to be accurate on the activity happening now in the market.
“What I can report on, is that we are exceptionally busy and new buyer registrations are up about a third which is phenomenal. Furthermore, Rightmove has reported a record total of 152 million visits in January and in London alone a 26% increase in agreed transactions so across the capital, January looks to be a positive month for activity.
“We are experiencing a great start to the year and do not have enough houses to sell to buyers registering. If you are thinking of selling please call the office on 020 8992 0333, or email sales@goviewlondon.co.uk and book in your valuation.”
Other local estate agents had been banking on a recovery in the New Year once the political uncertainty around the election had been reduced - the so-called 'Boris Bounce' but, as yet there is only patchy evidence of this happening.
One locally based agent, who preferred not to be named, said, "It's been a bit of a damp squib really. There has been some pick up but below what we were hoping for. We know there are lots of agents that were hanging in there hoping for a recovery but they may now have to bite the bullet unless things improve quickly.
"Two things seem to be discouraging people at the moment, firstly the large amount of new units due to be built locally and secondly the growing understanding that 'Get Brexit Done' didn't actually mean that and we face another year of grandstanding and cliff-edge deadlines in the negotiations."
In price terms the Ealing property market continues to be stable with W5 prices up by 5.8% in 2019 and W13 rising by a more impressive 16.6% although the latter was mainly due to the change of mix between houses and flats being sold.
New build units continue not to feature much in the list of sales reported to the Land Registry with only six in the last quarter of 2019, four of which were in Relph Court.
One area of the market that continues to perform well in Ealing is large family houses with three sales reported recently for over £2,000,000. The highest priced transaction was on Carlton Road where a detached house changed hands for £2,870,000.
| Ealing W5 Post Code Area Property Prices - (October - December 2019) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area | Detached | Sales | Semi-det | Sales | Terraced | Sales | Flat/mais | Sales | Overall average | Total sales |
| W5 1 | 425000 | 1 | 912750 | 4 | 849975 | 2 | 488400 | 5 | 684829 | 12 |
| W5 2 | 2541250 | 4 | 1065000 | 1 | 567500 | 2 | 527558 | 21 | 837275 | 28 |
| W5 3 | 1350000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 685000 | 1 | 430000 | 4 | 625833 | 6 |
| W5 4 | 1075000 | 2 | 743750 | 4 | 695258 | 6 | 452000 | 5 | 679797 | 17 |
| W5 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1007500 | 2 | 265000 | 1 | 760000 | 3 |
| Total | 1761250 | 8 | 854556 | 9 | 746654 | 13 | 493492 | 36 | 746261 | 66 |
| Change in Quarter | 18.8% | -11.1% | -26.0% | -62.5% | -6.7% | -58.1% | 7.1% | -47.8% | 1.6% | -50.4% |
| Change in year | 1.5% | 0.0% | -4.4% | -47.1% | 6.7% | -59.4% | -10.4% | -50.7% | 5.8% | -49.2% |
| Change in three years | -2.0% | -20.0% | -18.8% | -47.1% | -5.7% | -48.0% | -27.3% | -66.7% | -7.4% | -58.8% |
| Change in five years | 22.6% | 60.0% | -28.3% | -35.7% | 2.5% | -68.3% | 9.0% | -69.0% | 23.6% | -62.5% |
| Change in ten years | 51.6% | 0.0% | 59.8% | -52.6% | 65.7% | -65.8% | 76.6% | -45.5% | 77.7% | -49.6% |
Source: Land Registry
| Ealing W13 Post Code Area Property Prices - (October - December 2019) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area |
Detached |
Sales |
Semi-detached |
Sales |
Terraced |
Sales |
Flat/ |
Sales |
Overall Ave |
Overall Sales |
| W13 0 | 1160000 | 2 | 885000 | 1 | 671249 | 2 | 410900 | 5 | 660200 | 10 |
| W13 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 386100 | 5 | 386100 | 5 |
| W13 9 | 0 | 0 | 1078750 | 4 | 791250 | 12 | 436275 | 4 | 777755 | 20 |
| Total | 1160000 | 2 | 1040000 | 5 | 774107 | 14 | 409293 | 14 | 688217 | 35 |
| Change in Quarter | -17.1% | 0.0% | 2.7% | -66.7% | 7.5% | -58.8% | 3.6% | -46.2% | 0.5% | -54.5% |
| Change in year | - | - | 27.9% | -28.6% | 6.0% | -33.3% | 0.9% | -54.8% | 16.6% | -42.6% |
| Change in three years | - | - | 6.8% | -54.5% | -5.1% | -30.0% | -1.2% | -48.1% | 2.7% | -40.7% |
| Change in five years | - | - | 16.3% | -68.8% | 8.3% | -57.6% | 6.8% | -70.2% | 8.3% | -65.0% |
| Change in ten years | - | - | 70.1% | -73.7% | 77.4% | -67.4% | 82.5% | -54.8% | 62.1% | -63.5% |
Source: Land Registry
For the country as a whole prices grew by 1.4% in 2019 to reach an average of £215,282 according to the Nationwide House Price Index. The figures from National Statistics show a 2.2% rise to November 2019 to an average of £235,298.
Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said, “January saw a further modest pick-up in annual UK house price growth to 1.9%, from 1.4% in December. This follows twelve 12 successive months in which annual price growth had been below 1%.
“Indicators of UK economic activity were fairly volatile for much of 2019, but the underlying pace of growth slowed through the year as a result of weaker global growth and an intensification of Brexit uncertainty.
“Recent data continue to paint a mixed picture. Economic growth appeared to grind to a halt as 2019 drew to a close, though business surveys point to a pickup at the start of the New Year. “
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) November 2019 UK Residential Market Survey reported that key measures of buyer demand point to sales remaining in negative territory, the uncertainty surrounding the 2019 General Election and Brexit being the likely cause of suppressed activity. However, there is an expectation that a more stable trend is likely to emerge over the coming three months.
The Bank of England’s Agents’ summary of business conditions – 2019 Q4 reported that the housing market remained subdued, mainly due to the October Brexit deadline and the General Election. Contacts reported that house prices were modestly down on a year ago in the south and modestly up elsewhere.
“Looking ahead, economic developments will remain the key driver of housing market trends and house prices. Much will continue to depend on how quickly uncertainty about the UK’s future trading relationships lifts, as well as the outlook for global growth. Overall, we expect the economy to continue to expand at a modest pace in 2020, with house prices remaining broadly flat over the next 12 months.
February 11, 2020