The TfL mouthpieces working for Boris have submitted the following comments to the Davies Commission as part of their response on short and medium term options :"Large scale mass redundancies have a huge impact on small economies with a high dependency on industries that are structurally declining especially when the shock happens rapidly with no time for planning an effective mitigation response.None of these characteristics applyThe timescales for planning are nearly 20 years, an exceptionally long timescale for workers, businesses and residents to prepare to the relocation of Heathrow airport to an expanded site:With 1.5 million people the West London economy is already larger than Birmingham’s and has a diverse range of economic strengths stretching far outside aviation services. This scale and diversity can only be expected to increase over the next 20 years in line with London’s projected growth.•London added more than 40,000 jobs each year duringthe growth decade to 2008. By the time a new hub airport is open more than one third of Heathrow’s current staffwill have retired. In the medium term, the redevelopment of the well connected Heathrow site as a new London Borough would accommodate at least 184,000 new residents who would support 43,000 new jobs locally as well as offering more than 5,000 construction jobs immediately.Heathrow’s staff already have high turnover rates: one third of catering and retail staff have been in their jobs for less than a year. Moreover, many other airport staff are very mobile and will easily adapt to a relocated hub.As a very dynamic and resilient economy London has absorbed far greater changes in the past. As London moved from beinga manufacturing-based economy tobeing more service-oriented some 825,000 manufacturing jobs were lost over 30 years –about ten times direct employment at Heathrow – while at the same time adding 25,000 new business service jobs each year.Many staff could be expected to move to towns near the new airport or to commute using the excellent public transport provision. As probably some of the most geographically mobile workers in the UK it is difficult to see how, forexample, the 19,900 air cabin crew at Heathrow would find it problematic operating from another airport. Many are probably already moving between different airports in the UK and many airport already staff commute comparatively long distances. In 2008 nearly one quarter of Heathrow’s direct workforce (more than 16,130 people) travelled to work from the “Rest of the UK”. For example, 840 staff (more than 1%) travelled from Brighton– a 67 mile road journey or nearly 2 hours by public transport. An Isle of Grain airport is just 54 miles from Heathrow by road.Even in a highly unlikely scenario that Heathrow closes and nothing happens on the prime West London site for 20 years, detailed labour modelling shows that the unemployment rate would peak at just 3.6% compared to the current 3.2% (2012)"http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/corporate/mayor-london-response-to-long-and-short-to-medium-term-proposal.pdf
Tim Henderson ● 4555d