Forum Topic

By-election predictions

Going simply on the amount of campaigning activity it looks like the Lib Dems and the Conservatives have written off South Acton and Northolt Mandeville and are focusing exclusively on Hanger Hill. I'd assume the Lib Dems were favourites before yesterday and more so since James Cleverly failed to make the last two in the leadership contest. A heavy defeat for the Tories would be existential for them in Ealing in my view. Are there really many Ealing based Conservatives who believe that leaving the ECHR is a sensible thing to do? The only rational choice for the few remaining councillors who don't agree with the road their party is going for is to team up with the Lib Dems to form a more effective opposition to Labour.

Gordon Southwell ● 233d14 Comments

"It’s also why the Conservatives won Ealing in 2096".Given the absolute shambles that passes for the Conservative Party in Ealing, that may be the next year that they do win.

N V Brooks ● 220d

A lot of local elections are used as a protest vote against the national government, as was evidenced in recent years. It’s also why the Conservatives won Ealing in 2096, after nine years of Tony Blair in Downing Street.Labour is certainly more proactive at canvassing and most of what they have saud in recent local elections has been along the lines of ‘teach the Tories a lesson’, rather than pointing to its own rather patchy record in Ealing.London is generally left leaning due to its demographic but you are right to say that most people can’t be bothered with local politics and are generally unaware of much that is done where they live. That is until it directly affects them for good or bad.

Simon Hayes ● 220d

The numbers don't really bear your claims out. Only 17% of the electorate voted in South Acton and 21% in Northolt. This is hardly an army of any kind. It is the 80% of people who didn't vote who are likely to be the ones that know nothing about local issues. A few hundred votes decided these by-elections alot of which are likely to be people helped out by councillors as part of their casework.  Local government isn't about grand political theory but service provision and most people don't bother to vote unless they believe that the council is doing a really terrible job or they think it is doing a particularly good one. There appear to be substantially more of the latter but they in turn are outweighed by those that aren't particularly bothered either way.

Gordon Southwell ● 220d

And we can't "fire" them.All elected representatives to Government should be on Contracts of Employment with metrics - Targets and Performance Indicators etc.The current system where you can pick and choose who you assist, let alone just put your feet up and do FA, is as ineffective as it is ludicrous.

Rosco White ● 228d

Whoever gets in, let’s hope they remember they are meant to represent the people.James Murray Y ManuelRupa HuqOthers too, emailed. Silence is deafening not a single syllable reply 😡

Peter Yale ● 228d

Yer 'avin' a larf Mr Southwell.Every single intelligent & informed Labour voter I know is appalled by the antics at LBE and vote anything but Labour at the locals.If you won't acknowledge that there's an army of "Haven't got a clues" who "ALWAYS vote Labour" who know NOTHING about the local issues it says a lot more about you than me.

Rosco White ● 232d

Such contempt for your neighbours indicates someone who has become personally isolated. While I might disagree with the way some people I know in my ward might vote I don't know any that do it in an unthoughtful way. Over a thousand people in South Acton thought the Labour candidate was the best option and they will have a variety of reasons for doing so none of which would mark them out as either a donkey or lemming. More broadly on the results overnight, I'd stand by my the comment that a defeat in Hanger Hill of this nature is existential. Conservatives in this ward and neighbouring Ealing Broadway tend to be professional people and they are the group most alienated by the drift of the party further to the right. Neither Jenrick or Badenoch are likely to appeal to them and so a wipeout looks on the cards. The remaining four Tories should join up with the Lib Dems if they want to be councillors after 2026. This isn't just my view. I chatted to a friend this morning who is a long term member of the local party and who is fuming. He said that the party failed to build on the platform of the election win in 2006 because becoming a councillor came to be seen as a stepping stone to becoming an MP, therefore many of those elected had little interest in local matters and the most hardworking and diligent councillors were sidelined or even treated with contempt.

Gordon Southwell ● 232d

Coming from someone who berates anyone who thinks differently from him, Paul, you are taking the piss.

Simon Hayes ● 233d

''The only rational choice for the few remaining councillors who don't agree with the road their party is going for is to team up with the Lib Dems to form a more effective opposition to Labour''.Aah the Liberals or the protest vote as it should be called. I prefer Labour Lite myself as it sums them up perfectly. Not on my watch pal

peter king ● 233d

You're going to have to explain to me?

Rosco White ● 233d

"it surely only proves there is a massive Donkey Lemming Vote?"

Paul James ● 233d

And?So?

Rosco White ● 233d

Rosco, these are the people you live alongside you're talking about.

Paul James ● 233d

Given the myriad complaints about "The Three Ghosts" (aka the three Labour Ward Councillors of South Acton), if South Acton returns yet another Labour Ward Councillor it surely only proves there is a massive Donkey Lemming Vote?

Rosco White ● 233d