Forum Topic

Will there be a Tory wipeout in Ealing?

Prompted by an article about the election in Hounslow borough I checked the Electoral Calculus web site to look at recent voting patterns. This showed that at the last general election (2019) Ealing Broadway ward, Ealing Common ward , Hanger Hill ward and Northfield ward all voted Labour and the latest detailed survey (March) predicted them doing so by a substantial margin. This is of course for Westminster voting rather than local elections but the survey was also before the issuance of FPNS to Johnson and Sunak and the rise in energy bills and 'Tractorgate'. If this pattern is replicated on Thursday there would be no Tory MPs on Ealing Council. I am not sufficiently well informed to say whether this is a reliable indicator or not but it would be a shocking outcome for the Ealing Conservatives.

Gordon Southwell ● 1226d18 Comments

I note that you can differentiate between how a country is run and how a Council is run ............😆

Rosco White ● 1223d

Whilst the Tories make a pigs-ear of things nationally there is no way back for them in London.

Kevin Wilson ● 1223d

You won't be saying that in four more hard years time pal

Peter King ● 1223d

You obviously like Towers then?SO many of them providing "affordable housing."  🤣

Rosco White ● 1223d

Lovely to see them fall back into third place.

Kevin Wilson ● 1223d

Apologies but I read the charts from Pollcat wrong.They are actually predicting a loss of four Tory councillors not all eight. If I am reading the charts right they are saying that they will lost one seat in Hanger Hill, two in Ealing Broadway and one in Ealing Common.

Mark Evans ● 1224d

Some people are arguing that the best way to reverse some of the transport policies that have been recently implemented across London is to vote Labour. The logic being that a catastrophic defeat for the Tories would mean that Johnson goes immediately and with him Andrew Gilligan who has been the main advocate in government for these policies.Gilligan has publicly expressed his desire to punish Ealing for rolling back the LTN schemes in the borough so the logic of this claim appears sound.

Mark Evans ● 1224d

Yet the Tories got more votes in Ealing in last year’s mayoral election despite Johnson being a bumbling fool and his cabinet making daily cock ups.Ironically the LCC fantasists should really have BoJo as their poster boy, given his ludicrous devotion to cycling.We’ll see what happens tomorrow....

Simon Hayes ● 1225d

Big dilemma.Vote for a morally corrupt and devious conniving local administration or vote against a Morally and devious conniving national administration?Either way you have to sleep at night knowing that voting one way either tactically or in blind faith you have supported both.What a dreadful choice.

Raymond Havelock ● 1225d

Keep whistling dixie

David Burke ● 1225d

The pollcat analysis seems rather flawed, since it’s done on generalisations rather than any specific polling. The giveaway is the last paragraph on the methodology:‘The projecitons also do not take into account local factors that may produce a different result to that might otherwise be expected based on other trends.’So that would be LTNs, overdevelopment, failure to engage, cronyism, etc....

Simon Hayes ● 1225d

Ealing Labour is already factional, and that will continue under Peter Mason. His sole ambition is to get himself into Parliament.I don’t think the polls referred to are local enough to indicate what will happen in particular wards. Labour may well retain control of the borough but they will lose seats and vote share for a number of reasons.People in parts of Ealing are far more engaged with local politics than they were four years ago, and quite a few Labour candidates haven’t performed creditably in that time.

Simon Hayes ● 1225d

https://pollcat-stats.com/london2022/ealing/The Lib Dems will be the only opposition confined to their Chiswick enclave. As a Labour supporter I don't think this is a good outcome because borough politics will become factional within one party which can be more destructive than conflict between different parties.

Mark Evans ● 1225d

No great towers if you vote UKIP in Ealing Common

Julie Carter ● 1226d

I am standing in Ealing Common for UKIPFood for thought!

Julie Carter ● 1226d

You do have the option to vote UKIP in Ealing Common I’m standing and some diversity will help with the mix

Julie Carter ● 1226d

LibDems are just Labour Light, ever noticed that they invariably vote to "Grant" Towers at Planning Committee?In fact, they invariably vote "Grant" for anything & everything at Planning Committees meetings, just like their Comrades.  😉Joined at the hip in Ealing, it's a useless & wasted vote for the LibDems if you want shot of Local Council Labour's appalling and destructive Policies.

Rosco White ● 1226d

And for local democracy too. The Liberals in Hanger Hill are spending their time slagging off the Tories. Who would they rather have running the council(if not them)?

Peter King ● 1226d