Forum Topic

Mark Julian Raymond · 3/6/2020 7:04:00 PM

new.EalingToday.co.uk Communtity Forum Topic posting

As of 9a.m. yesterday there were one to four cases of Covid-19 coronavirus in the Borough of Ealing

In the statistics published by Public Health England (PHE) this morning the figures for Covid-19 cases in Ealing as of 9a.m. yesterday (5th March) was listed as one to four cases in the local authorityhttps://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-englandResearch and analysisCoronavirus (COVID-19): number of cases in EnglandPublished 6 March 2020As of 9am on 6 March 2020, 20,338 people have been tested in the UK, of which 20,175 were confirmed negative and 163 were confirmed as positive. One patient who tested positive for COVID-19 has died. See data by NHS regional breakdown.Public Health England (PHE) will publish data by upper tier local authority, one day in arrears, to allow local public health and health colleagues to plan their services.

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2069d31 Comments

How long is this outbreak likely to last? (My unanswered cronavirus question)Has anyone seen any information in the press (or elsewhere) about how long thi outbreak is likely to last if we follow Boris' "squashing the sombrero" strategy, given four weeks of the outbreak here so far (we are said to be four weeks behind Italy) then ten to fourteen week before it peaks, that would mean fourteen to eighteen weeks from start to peak, then if it starts to die down are we looking at a further fourteen to eighteen weeks on the other side of the peak (or is it going to be less) bringing the total number of weeks as of today (maximum) to some 32 weeks before this is over (are my figures right, anyone know?)

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2061d

The Guardian Newspaper TodayWHO urges countries to 'track and trace' every Covid-19 caseAdvice comes day after UK decides to stop community tests and only test hospital casesSarah Boseley Health editorFri 13 Mar 2020 18.13 GMTLast modified on Fri 13 Mar 2020 18.44 GMTCountries should find and test every case of coronavirus to stop the pandemic, the World Health Organization has said a day after the UK announced that only the most seriously ill will be tested.“You can’t fight a virus if you don’t know where it is,” the WHO’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said at a briefing on Friday. “Find, isolate, test and treat every case to break the chains of Covid transmission. Every case we find and treat limits the expansion of the disease.”The UK government said on Thursday that it would no longer try to “track and trace” everyone suspected of having the virus. Instead, under plans outlined by Boris Johnson and his medical and scientific advisers, testing would be limited to patients in hospital with serious breathing problems, which may be caused by coronavirus but could also be because of flu. Isolation at home would be a voluntary measure, but anyone with a persistent cough or temperature would be asked to do so.The prime minister’s briefing, which followed an emergency Cobra meeting, also marked a sudden and significant U-turn in NHS policy. Just a day earlier NHS England had announced an increase in testing in the community. A “significant expansion of coronavirus testing, with enhanced labs” would help the health service carry out 10,000 tests a day, it said.However, after the WHO declared coronavirus a pandemic, the government moved the UK from the “containment” phase into “delay”, accepting the inevitability of millions of infections. This also moved the testing strategy to one where people are no longer tested, but anyone with a temperature or a continuous cough is advised to stay home for seven days, to reduce the number of people they will infect.People with symptoms are not even advised to call NHS 111, but look at the online advice. The only time to seek medical help is if they get worse, not better.

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2062d

As of 9a.m. Friday March 13th we are sadly up to eight confirmed cases in the Ealing Borough.There are 136 cases in the London Health Authorities are as of this morning.The data for the London health authority area has moved and is now found on page:https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=febdd16bc34647ff8cd8b5d2ae2c4109#data

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2062d

Phlippa, You quite rightly ask, "Will they also publish how many people are waiting to be tested too? If one person says they have waited a whole week - how many others have?", a very good question. Might I be so bold as to ask whether you have considered e-mailing this question to our three Ealing MPs and ward councillors? And why are they having to wait?

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2062d

Will they also publish how many people are waiting to be tested too? If one person says they have waited a whole week - how many others have?

Philippa Bond ● 2062d

Rosco,There are people trying to make money out of this tragedy in the most inappropriate ways as well,An e-mail I sent to the Daily Express (I will probably NEVER get an answer), however,E-mail subject: "Daily Express coronavirus-related poll brings up inappropriate advertising for funerals after voting in "Should Boris Johnson isolate care homes in the UK?"Letter text:"To:The Editor, and The Publisher of the Daily ExpressDear Daily Express,I was depressed, shocked and then angered when a video-clip advert for funerals came up in the voting window after I had voted on your coronavirus survey article today on the Daily Express website as of Friday March 13 at around mid-day.The article was entitled: "Coronavirus POLL: Should Boris Johnson isolate care homes in the UK? VOTE HERE" and I was somewhat started by the advertisement which at the very least I would consider "tasteless".Please could you correct this oversight and preferably sack the advertising director/vice president who allowed this to happen.Yours faithfully,Mark Raymond(-Laskowski)"

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2062d

We are in for a ride, that's for sure.And I went to ASDA today to pick up a few items, and would like to say a sincere "Thanks" to all the pricks (and prickettes) who have cleaned everything out.Exacerbating and making it more serious. 🙄

Rosco White ● 2063d

I'm an Ealing resident in self isolation; My boyfriend (who lives in East London) is still waiting for an appointment to be COVID-tested, after a colleague he works closely with, tested positive...on Monday. We've been waiting the whole week for an appointment for the test, not even the results themselves, because of the back log. And now my boyfriend believes that he won't be tested after all, due to them prioritizing the sickest cases. I'm afraid the numbers being presented in the media about "confirmed cases" aren't accurate to the real situation, and what Boris said today is much more realistic. There are hundreds, if not thousands of people who have been exposed to the known cases and basically we just can't test fast enough. It's a farce. We need lock down sooner rather than later - but it looks like there's an arbitrary number of deaths that need to occur before the government can see that...?

Lara Callaghan ● 2063d

Thankfully, again, the Covid-19 case level has not risen in Ealing as of of 9:00am on 10 March 2020 staying at five confirmed cases. Clearly people in Ealing are washing their hands well! London is now at 91. We must keep on washing those hands well!

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2065d

Thankfully, the number of cases in Ealing had not risen as of March 9th 9a.m. Public Health England figures, abs stayed at five confirmed though figures for London overall had gone up to 61 confirmed Covid-19 cases

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2066d

There is a disclaimer on the bottom of the Public Health England table that says:"Location is based on case residential postcode. When this is not available, NHS trust or reporting laboratory postcode is used. The data is therefore subject to change." So the data is probably a mixture of residential and treatment location

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2066d

But as we see the crucial issue is whether people are spreading it whilst not showing symptoms. The maths would indicate that this is so. so how many cases will be each days increase and how many people have tests pending. I think we will see and explosion in numbers later in the week. It is not a case of panic or ignore. we should be concerned.

Peter Chadburn ● 2066d

Tony, simple mathematics seems to indicate that we are being told nothing useful at a local or national level, or indeed being given figures that are consistent. What is more neither local nor central government want to spend any money to plug a hole in the dam when it still can be plugged.The lack of information is truly appalling

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2066d

The figure for Brent is now (9/3/20) showing 3 cases.

Tony Colliver ● 2066d

Save that there are isolation 'pods' at Ealing Hospital so why convey an 'infectious' patient to Northwick Park?

N V Brooks ● 2067d

While the latest UK headline figures show 209 cases, up by 45, with 2 deaths, 18 of them are listed as 'recovered', which leaves 189 'active cases'. At the moment the UK has 3.1 cases per million of the population, which is a substantially lower ratio than many other affected countries.

Peter Evans ● 2068d

From what you say about Brent and Northwick Park I think that they are presenting the place that the patient was from, rather than place of treatment, which would also make sense as the figures are there for public health planning and tracing contacts would be relevant where the patient was from, e.g. Ealing, rather than where they were being treated, e.g. Northwick Park in Brent

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2068d

I would be wary of that data given that Northwick Park Hospital claimed to have four cases but the LB Brent (which is where Northwick Park Hospital is situated) is only shown with a single case.

N V Brooks ● 2068d

As of 9am this morning the number of confirmed Covid-19 has gone up to five in Ealing.https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-englandMeanwhile London overall has jumped from 22 to 38As of 9:00am on 7 March 2020, 206 people have been confirmed as positive for COVID-19. Two patients who tested positive have died

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2068d

"N V" You are right, we have not had this sort of panic in the past, and people are buying things in bulk that are contrary to their usual shopping patterns, for example, the shelves are empty of pasta!

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2068d

"N V" The latest data from the U.S. Centers for Diaease Control (CDC) shows that in the 2019 to 2020 U.S. flu season: "CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 34 million flu illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths from flu." This is fraction of what Covid-19 patients require where 20 per cent need hospitalisation to recover and leads into Philippa's points about the pressure on the NHS if this all happens at one go. To me it appears that 0.01% of flu cases are going to hospital in U.S. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2068d

You make salient points.
I was simply observing that when SARS and 'ABF' were virulent there was no panic buying of toilet tissue and, as far as I can recall, no major events were cancelled when there was just a single identified case in a particular area. We do, I fully accept, need to be vigilant and good personal hygeine, particular in hand-washing, is vital.

N V Brooks ● 2068d

"N V" A much lower percentage of people with flu need to go to hospital to get better. "Japanese administrative data revealed that 1.0% of influenza-positive patients aged under 75 years were hospitalised. Male patients had a higher incidence of pulmonary complications and febrile seizures. Children aged 0–5 years and adults aged 65–74 years were at high risk of being admitted to hospital for pneumonia."It is not quite an "apples for apples" comparison, however, it is not in the 20 per cent of cases hospitalised that Covid-19 needs to get better which leads into Philippa's point about pressure on hospitals and the NHS if we do not take precautions and the whole thing goes pear-shaped in one enormous event as then the system would not be able to cope

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2068d

Covid 19 has, thus far, around 1.7 times the fatality rate of seasonal flu in an 'average' season but less than one third of the fatality rate of seasonal flu in a 'virulent' season, the last of which in the UK was 2013/2014 when 10693 deaths were attributed to the effects of seasonal flu.
SARS on the other hand had a confirmed fatality rate of 10%
Covid-19 is no SARS and the hysteria being created is therefore not warranted.
Off to wash my hands again!

N V Brooks ● 2068d

At the risk of paraphrasing Sam Cooke, what a wonderful world it would be (if the human race was totally eradicated from it). Best regards,Hugo Drax.

Tony Heath ● 2068d

I have contacted my life long friend who is CEO of a household name company in Japan and he has emailed me:-"The virus isn't a problem unless you have health issues or are over 70.The virus probably won't kill you but the disruption to business may kill your business. People are focused on the wrong thing. Trade goes down as people stay at home, tourists stop traveling, events are cancelled, schools are closed, businesses go bankrupt.Preserve cash and reduce spending now.It will hit everywhere because Governments can't contain it and it is so contagious, and the media are scaring the hell out of everyone. Most business for us is postponed which means virtually zero revenues. So the cash reserves start burning."All makes sense to me, translates basically to "Batten down the hatches"?!!! 😨

Rosco White ● 2068d

"N V" Covid-19 in its mild form which is what 80 per cent of patients experience is described as "flu-like", where the difference with "flu" kicks in is that the remaining 20 per cent of Covid-19 patients require hospitalization.Quote:"Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that: 80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home. 13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath. 4.7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure. in about 2% of reported cases the virus is fatal. Risk of death increases the older you are. Relatively few cases are seen among children.Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology has found that: 80.9% of infections are mild (with flu-like symptoms) and can recover at home. 13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath. 4.7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure. in about 2% of reported cases the virus is fatal. Risk of death increases the older you are. Relatively few cases are seen among children."This is very different to flu

Mark Julian Raymond ● 2069d

Perhaps because all we can do is try and reduce our risks of getting it. We should all now know how stressed the hospitals are without any extra problems caused by a more infectious virus.

Philippa Bond ● 2069d

Let's put the whole damned thing into context.
There are c.260 deaths from influenza every winter (October-March) with around ten times that number needing 'critical care' according to the BMJ. Influenza is highly contagious, despite a supposedly effective vaccine, but doesn't create the mass hysteria that Covid-19 seems to do.

N V Brooks ● 2069d

Why dont we get a text when we go within a 1000 metres of a reported Coronavirus case?

Nicholas Beard ● 2069d