Forum Topic

Boris's Dilemma

After today's events I'm sure most people are as confused an uncertain about what is going on in UK politics as I am. Things are happening at such a pace it is difficult to keep track.  To make sense of it I thought it might be an idea to step back from the febrile atmosphere of news coverage of events and try and simplify what is going on. To start this it is probably best to accept from the outset that Boris Johnson has no guiding principles. That is meant as an observation rather than a criticism. Before opting to support Leave he laid out both sides of the argument and says he agonised over which to choose. That wasn't because he would have been persuaded by the strongest argument, he wanted to pick which would be best for his career. Boris has cultivated the party membership since he started in politics and, far more than any other Conservative politician has recognised that this is where true power lies within the party. Once he became leader it is now almost impossible to remove him as he will always have the backing of the membership. Getting close to the party rank and file has also made him well aware of their views and he was quick to realise they were unremittingly Eurosceptic. That they generally leaned that way was well known but he picked up quickly that since the referendum they had become obsessed with the issue beyond any other to the point that they would willingly compromise the economy or the Union to get Brexit. This meant that he knew any chance of him not becoming leader would be eliminated by him being the most unreservedly pro-Brexit candidate for leader. Right from the start he laid out his stall and effectively eliminated Dominic Raab who had previously outdone him for unbending Euroscepticism. However, this meant that he need to make pledges such as an unbreakable commitment to leave on 31 October. Having become leader he had to face the problem of his inadequate majority in the House which meant that any meaningful legislative programme was impractical even without Brexit. The normal solution would have been to call a general election but he faced the problem of another inadequate majority — that by which he holds Uxbridge and Hillingdon. If the Brexit party actively contests the seat and the Remain parties form an effective alliance he would probably lose. Therefore he needs to fight the election with some sort of pact with the Brexit party in place. The problem is that they are unlikely to stand aside unless he commits to a very hard Brexit as a campaign platform which his MPs may be unwilling to support. Assuming there is an election on 14 October cabinet would probably want him to say they would go for a negotiated deal without the backstop which the Brexit party say is not Brexit. This probably explains his confused and fairly pointless statement today. It would appear that the legislative challenge to 'no deal' Brexit is likely to work otherwise he wouldn't be threatening MPs with a loss of the whip. He now faces the choice of accepting an extension and missing the 31 October deadline or calling an election but he can't put no deal back on the table as a policy stance. However, an election would be an incredible roll of the dice. There are so many variables but the most likely outcome at this stage seems to be a Remain coalition with some chance that Boris may lose his seat. Of course a lot could happen in the meantime but Boris is essentially saddled with a policy stance that might appeal to his party's members but is unpalatable to the broader electorate. He probably recognises the chance of losing is high. On the other hand toughing it out as PM and reneging on his commitment to leave by 31 October even under duress may end his political career. Even he would have to consider resignation.  Neither of theses choices are particularly palatable for him but at least he has a dog now to give him some comfort.



Gordon Southwell ● 2255d45 Comments

Unfortunately the government is not being honest with parliament or the public over the full impact of a no deal. David Davis sat in front of a select committee almost two years ago and blithely admitted no impact assessments had been done on the various sectors that will be affected by a no deals that was despite assurances he gave a year before that these would be done.There has been precious little preparation for no deal. There’s work currently underway to build lorry parks in Kent, when I drove up the M20 11 days ago there was construction work being done on a new junction for that purpose although it looked unlikely to be ready by October 31.Needless to say there is actually very little interest among our entitled and moneyed elite to tackle this problem sensibly. It’s purely a political move to ‘take back control’ from Brussels. However, the track record of actually implementing workable or sensible policies from Westminster is dire. Grenfell happened because of a decision made by our government. Leaving the EU won’t suddenly make the NHS problems go away, nor will it invigorate our manufacturing base or help our fishermen (who face the prospect of ruinous delays to exporting their catch because of increased bureaucracy).I’m against Brexit for a multitude of reasons but I’m almost tempted to say give these people what they wish for just to see how many of these ‘marginalised’ areas who voted leave struggle more as a result. I guarantee we’d be banging on Brussels door to rejoin within a decade.

Simon Hayes ● 2248d

We see a man who is prepared to lay his country down for the sake of the wing of his party dominated by hedge funders, speculators and friends of oligarchs. We had project lies vs. project fear. But the defence minister who let the cat out of the bad about the prorogue being to enable him to get brexit done at least was truthful. By choosing the backstop as the one item to negotiate shows that boris was always going for the no deal as he knew that was one thing. they could not drop. the 30 day challenge from merkel was a clever move to put the onus on britain and we await proposals. the eu team are waiting and we have no hint of any progress. If he admitted that no deal was the choice then he would be out of a job. but if he carries on the charade and calls an election then the brexit party will oppose him. so the deal is just a charade and boris wants people to blame for the no deal when people suffer. firstly in the areas that voted leave any increased unemployment is the will of the people. then there is labour for not agreeing to the deal that he and his chums rejected. then there is the eu for not taking out the backstop. then there is larry the cat. Boris will of course be the churchillian hero. however Winston's grandson is part of the rebel alliance!! So whilst calculating and devious is one thing. The fact that not a single person in parliament trusts you must be quite a difficult thing to handle. My feeling is that we are still headed for a no deal which would be terrible for many people. As for the settled status being easy so many people who have been here years have been rejected. My wife has to provide proof for years in which she has National Insurance contributions. Sounds like another windrush in the making!! It would be fun if Boris got defeated as an mp. He deserves that. He wants loyalty and yet he was the carrier of the knife for Theresa May.  Interesting times eh!!!

Peter Chadburn ● 2254d

The referendum result is only binding on the country in as much as any other vote would be. That’s why we continue to have elections, democracy doesn’t stand still and people can - and do - change their minds.The issue here is that the outcome of leaving without a deal will cause a great deal of hardship for a large number of people, mainly those on low incomes or in insecure employment, who may end up losing their jobs. We have already seen certain sectors hit hard by Brexit (steel, for example) and others will contract further in the event of no deal. While some people may think that’s an acceptable price to pay for ‘taking back control’ try explaining that to someone who can no longer feed their family. I said at the time if one person loses their job because of the referendum it’s not the right result.It’s interesting that we don’t have referendums on other aspects of the political system that people may not like. Why not have one about the tax regime, which is over complicated and appears to be abused by the wealthiest in society? Why not have one on our military involvement overseas? We don’t because governments are supposed to run these things for us.The problem is that David Cameron abdicated his responsibility over Europe as a sop to certain factions in his party. This was seized on by non Tory groups, notably Farage, to promote the myth of ‘taking back control’. In reality countries are run by multinational corporations, who locate business in a jurisdiction because it offers the best incentives to maximise profits. That’s why our banking sector became so big. Leaving the EU might attract some business but it will see the departure of far more who want unfettered access to the single market. That will inevitably have a negative effect on our economy.And it may be coincidence that some of our elected representatives (step forward J Rees-Mogg) have a personal stake in ensuring we leave rather than have their business affairs falling under new EU regulations that might affect their fortunes.And this is before we consider the Irish question. The biggest achievement  the UK government in the 1990s was the peace process which continues to this day. It’s naive to underestimate the strength of feeling on both sides of the sectarian divide about the reintroduction of a hard border in Ireland.I doubt there will be a civil war here if we don’t leave. I suspect there would actually be a sense of relief for the most part.

Simon Hayes ● 2254d

The way I see it, the mess Johnson inherited was down to Parliament openly revolting on the people and the promise both Government and Official Opposition made on 2017.When they both agreed to sign Article 50 they knew it's legislation said all treaties cease two years later "With or Without a deal in place", so both side then openly promised exactly that on TV, "With or Without a deal we will leave on 29th March at 2300 hours. There are plenty of videos still online showing Tory and Labour remainers promising this. When the date came T. May (who did not want to leave) allowed the opposition to carry the blame for revolting against those promises. From then on, Parliament is in open revolt against it's own people by tearing up the promises and Laws put in place following the biggest Mandate in UK history.Then came the remainer's calls for a second referendum, despite the original 2016 one carrying the "There can be NO Second Referendum" as one of it's terms (as told to the people by Cameron on TV). As the original deadline was for "With or Without a Deal" there really was no valid reason to not leave in March.Now we Have a split political system with most MPs and Lords determined to revolt against the people, and just a few including the PM insisting the People's Mandate must be carried out and siding with the people.Now the opposition and remainers have tagged Boris and the leavers as fascists, far right etc, even now attacking the Queen for Proroguing Parliament, we now see on the leave side Forces Veterans and many still serving as well as 1000s of others reaching boiling point.All wanting to fight for the original scenario of there being no deal on the table at 2300hrs on 29/3/2019, as that was the Parliament's promise to it's people.To those on the leave side, the opposition has led this revolt against the British People, fanning the flames of resentment among the left to take to the streets to try and overturn the People's Mandate. The leavers are now organising their own demonstrations to counter those of the remain/left wing. Talk now is of a Civil War with people openly talking of spilling their own blood in order to get what was promised in March 2017, but the opposition took away from them despite the Mandate and Promises.We might all laugh at Boris Johnson, but he is one of a very few who has chosen to side with the people's mandate, and hopefully restore some trust in our politicians, as right now, Laws, Promises and Pledges coming from Parliament and MPs mean absolutely nothing. and all because Parliament, in Particular the opposition parties chose to go into open revolt against the mandate of the people, a mandate they themselves asked the people for, and a mandate they themselves promised to carry out in March 2019.

Leslie Bailey ● 2254d