Forum Topic

The Real Project Fear

Was chatting last night to a friend of mine who has some inside knowledge of what is actually going on in parliament.She told me that a number of MPs are afraid for their lives at the moment and that is having a significant effect on how votes are being cast. The problem is particularly bad for female Labour MPs in so-called leave constituencies and they aren't inclined to dismiss the murder of Jo Cox as a one off particularly with the thwarting of the plot to kill Rosie Cooper yesterday. They are all getting daily threats and are inclined to take them seriously which constrains them from voting the way they would like.Less seriously but just as relevant in terms of voting numbers is that my friend claims that many Tory MPs publicly advocating no deal or hard Brexit privately admit it would be a disaster and say that they are only doing so because they fear the wrath of their local constituency party members. Can it be right that a crucial decision is being taken on the future of this country by MPs who are acting under duress?

Mark Evans ● 2406d19 Comments

You can't blame MPs for the current situation as it is not of their making. It was a profound misunderstanding of the complex issues involved to believe that an in/out referendum could deliver a consensus on how our relationship with the EU should be managed. David Cameron probably knew that but never believed that people would vote to leave. If you ignore claims of intimidation and political opportunism (which clearly have some basis) MPs are all acting in what they believe is in the best interests of the country. The problem is that different visions of Brexit are not just variations on a theme but are completely incompatible in their objectives. In other words, just because an MP believes in one option to leave the EU doesn't necessarily mean that he or she can support another option and may well believe that staying in is a preferable alternative. This means that the Commons is fairly accurately reflecting the will of the people. Many of those who voted to leave did so because they wanted to end Freedom of Movement but they would never contemplate leaving without a deal. Others voted to Leave because they wanted us separate as cleanly as possible from the EU and move our economy in a completely different direction. The deal negotiated by the Government doesn't achieve this and many Leave supporters would say that we would be better off staying in if this was the option. That MPs can't agree on the kind of Brexit we should have only reflects the opinions of the electorate. Anyone who says they 'should just get on with it' doesn't really understand the situation.

Gordon Southwell ● 2380d

Whether Brexit in whatever form and if ever it happens will be a disaster God only knows. What is a disaster is the present messing about and indecision - a disaster economically and democratically. God help us!

Graham Weeks ● 2380d

Never mentioned Leave Lies. What I referred to is the scenario papers prepared by HM Government about the impacts of the various different ways of leaving the EU.Presuming these people you say are undermining a democratic decision 'cease and desist' what happens then?

Andy Jones ● 2381d

"I didn't say Brexit will be a disaster, " .......... "Crystal balls are not necessary to know that Brexit will be a disaster."  ????Anyway. UK plc will be absolutely fine, if we all unite & pull together, those who are determinedly undermining a democratic decision immediately ceasing and desisting.    (Don't talk about Leave Lies, both sides employed deceit.)    :-)

Rosco White ● 2381d

I didn't say Brexit will be a disaster, I said it is a disaster. Our government and party system is being torn apart because people who say they want Brexit can't agree on what sort of Brexit we should have. In the meantime other government business has more or less ground to a halt and critical issues that should be being dealt with being ignored and the resultant problems left to fester.There is simply no way out of this impasse because the advocates of the different varieties of Brexit in the Commons will never agree to a version other than their own to the point that many cheerfully admit that it would be better to stay in the EU than accept their rivals' proposals.In the meantime the economy continues to be steadily undermined. The headline grabbing hollowing out of the domestic car industry is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to investment plans being scaled back in manufacturing. The effects of this will be long term as existing plants continue to operate but will close in a few years due to lack of investment. The financial sector has gone into a phase of sustained decline with institutions steadily moving staff to other centres such as Dublin and Frankfurt. You don't read that much about this in the papers because most of these moves are internal transfers in very large institutions but the exodus is significant in terms of the total working population of the City of London and if anything is accelerating.The union has probably also been fatally undermined. Terrorism in Northern Ireland has reared its ugly head and a consensus is developing that if Britain is so cavalier in its attitude to the Good Friday Agreement then cannot be trusted to act in the area's best interest. Gibraltar is doing some serious thinking about its future and, although Scotland currently seems to be uninterested in independence, that is based on the assumption that Brexit isn't happening.Those who wanted Brexit to bring down immigration can celebrate that net arrivals from the EU have collapsed. This predictable outcome has made the already acute staff shortages in the NHS much worse, left many construction projects unable to find key skilled staff and resulted in crops being left to rot because there is nobody to pick them. Once again we read about these things in the paper but we don't hear about the subtler more pernicious ways that Brexit undermines our economy. There are several instances to my personal knowledge where British based operations have lost significant contracts because a key member of personnel has left to return to the EU and a suitable replacement was not available. When this sort of thing happens no job losses may directly result and no headlines will be written but we are nevertheless just that bit poorer as a nation.Crystal balls are not necessary to know that Brexit will be a disaster. The government has done detailed scenario planning showing the impact of the different varieties of Brexit on the economy. Even the softest of soft Brexits will deliver significant economic harm. These are not the desperate distortions of a Remainer dominated civil service hoping to intimidate ministers into staying in the EU. The assumptions they make about what happens after Brexit are relatively benign particular with regard to new trading relationships. Forecasts from independent research in the the private sector present a much more concerning picture.I've yet to see one convincing argument for any benefits that would come from leaving the EU that would mitigate all the harm currently being done and all the damage likely to occur in the future.

Andy Jones ● 2381d

Brexit will be a disaster - may I borrow all your crystal balls?

Rosco White ● 2386d

A relation of mine who works in the media and is very familiar with what is said in the bars in the Commons claims that if there was a secret ballot of MPs on what to do over 500 would vote to revoke article 50.He says fear of violence from a small section of their constituents does cause some MPs to hide their real views and lots of Conservatives can't afford to alienate their local party executive so don't want what happened to Nick Boles to happen to them. However a bigger reason for people publicly supporting a policy they know to be a disaster in private is that it increases their chances of ministerial preferment. It is widely expected that a strongly pro-Brexit candidate will be the next Tory leader and, although some high profile remainers might be maintained in the cabinet most of the minor government positions will be filled by MPs who have talked the talk with regard to the EU. The situation is quite similar in Labour. Although talking about a second referendum no longer gets you thrown out of the cabinet there has been no attempt to reintegrate the MPs who were cast out before over their Brexit views even though they include most of the more talented and experienced people they have in the Commons. With a Jeremy Corbyn election victory a possibility and his shadow cabinet filled with talentless mediocrity Labour MPs know that apparent loyalty is the best way to future preferment and people who under normal circumstances could never have dreamed of holding an office of state know that just by keeping their mouth shut they have a chance.In such an environment we should be extra appreciative of the MPs from both main parties, including Rupa Huq, who are giving us an honest account of the situation and not being equivocal about what a disaster Brexit is.

Andy Jones ● 2386d

Rationality has long ceased to be the way decisions are made. Power in this country is concentrated as never before in the members of two political parties. With the Tories the looming leadership contest means that their aging rabidly pro-Brexit membership has even more influence than normal. For Labour the pro-EU beliefs of the vast majority of their membership are over-ridden by their sentimental attachment to an inept and ineffectual leader whose political views are unchanged from the seventies and whose main advisor is a public school Stalinist who desperately wants us to leave.

Mark Evans ● 2392d

Revocation of Article 50 is now the only rational option.

Paul Scullion ● 2406d

A number of people I know who voted leave have now said they would vote to remain. Many of them believed the nonsense about it being easy to leave and how we would have all these trade deals, etc. One even said she thought it would be fun to have Boris as PM!What seems to have been missed throughout this whole process is that the referendum was not a binding vote, it was an advisory one, albeit one that was too simple a choice for such a nuanced problem. Any new referendum would be the same unless there was an explicit clause in the legislation setting it up that said Parliament would be legally bound by the result.What we’ve seen is a faction of rabidly anti-EU Tories (abetted by a number of opportunists like Boris) taking advantage of the narrow majority who voted leave to further their own ambitions.One consolation to emerge from the recent chaos has been to see Tory firebrand Mark Francois almost exploding with outrage st his Brexit being frustrated. One of these days he’ll actually pop on live telly.

Simon Hayes ● 2406d

Thanks Andy. i discussed with a leave friend and we felt it needed a 65/35 promised vote to probably make it worthwhile. But it needs to have a second question on the basis of if leave is yes then what kind of deal. It would be obvious that remain voters would then opt for a soft brexit. but if it ended up 52/48 leave but 60% in favour of a soft brexit option then at least no one could complain. Part of the issue for the politicians is how to resolve this once and for ever!!

Peter Chadburn ● 2406d

The most recent poll overseen by Prof John Curtice indicated a 57/43 split in favour of remain and did get quite a bit of coverage. However we have learnt our lesson from the first time and it wouldn't be a binary choice between an established scenario and a concept which encompassed a very broad range of aspirations. It can only really be a choice between staying and particular kind of Brexit which the indications are suggesting would be closer to 60/40. The polling suggests that the size of the swing is not primarily down to people changing their minds but because people who didn't vote first time out of either confusion or apathy are now mainly going to vote remain.

Andy Jones ● 2406d

The results of media polls have not been well publicised, but I did see a suggestion that a new referendum would show around 10% in favour of remaining in the EU. Surely the government will have commissioned its own polls? I suspect that the EU would not welcome us back if we leave and then ask to re-join.If the problem has been that a second referendum would split the party, that threat is now redundant.

Christopher Bell ● 2406d

That is also an issue Bettina. The narrowness of the result is a big problem  in bringing cohesion. I would be reluctant to have another referendum unless it was clear that a lot of people had changed their minds

Peter Chadburn ● 2406d

And if a second referendum produced a narrow Remain result? The country is already split enough. In fairness it would then have to be the best of three. We can carry on in this fashion until the cows come home.

Bettina Margaret Thwaite ● 2406d

Yes The Russians Must be very happy seeing the chaos inside the UK and USA politically.

Peter Chadburn ● 2406d

I'm on a medical trial at the moment and my doctor, who's quite high up in the medical profession and well connected is exposed to this said the chaos we see in public is nothing at all compared to what's going on behind closed doors in Westminster.But they've all signed NDAs.

Paul James ● 2406d

The majority of UK voters would only consider voting for either Labour or Conservative candidates, they have little real knowledge about either but even less about anything else.Much of the information about the EU and its cost to the UK is based on sloppy reporting by the media, listing a large amount of money thrown into the combined EU budget but not the reasons why or how it is spent, while I suspect that a comparison should be made with the costs involved in running the UK parliament, UK internal budget costs and allocations, and spends on things like R&D, including money for these projects that is spent outside the EU.

Christopher Bell ● 2406d

Our Politics have been blown open by this whole exercise. Sad to see and when you see the bile thrown at people weekly on Question Time you can see that the nastiness is mainstream. What you say does not surprise me. When Nigel Farage distances himself from UKIP you know that something is wrong. We see some nasty people of the left and right who are bullying and intimidating their MP's. The no confidence vote in Dominic Grieve is a case in point. We had a narrow victory for leave so we must leave. The only answer is to unite around a softer brexit in which we do leave but also do not destroy our economy. And if there is the evidence that an approval referendum would deliver a different result then throw that back to the people to see whether they agree to it. The Press are at fault for their Traitors headlines. They are disgraceful

Peter Chadburn ● 2406d