Forum Topic

Tory Wipe Out in Ealing on 3rd May

Having made a throw away comment in another thread about the Conservatives losing all their seats in Ealing borough in the local elections I thought I'd take a closer look just to see if it was a real possibility. Having done so I have to say that it is and that the Conservatives will certainly have a low single figure number of councillors and maybe even a big fat zero. Amazing to think that within the last decade they controlled the Council. I'm not saying that this is a good thing - in fact Council's overly dominated by one party don't tend to be particularly well run. Some very good and diligent councillors look set to lose their seats.On a ward by ward basis if you take Cleveland, Ealing Common and Northfield ward the national and London-wide swing against the party makes it very unlikely they will hold onto any of the seats there as their margin is small. One exception might be David Millican's seat in Northfield where is high personal vote combined with three opposition parties all thinking they have a chance might allow him to hang on.The two Tory 'safe' wards of Hanger Hill and Ealing Broadway present a real problem for them. They had the second and fourth highest percentage votes in the borough for Remain both over 70% In addition they have an extremely high proportion of EU citizens from other countries - 19.3% and 18.0% respectively as of the 2011 census. EU citizens can vote and the number resident will have gone up substantially over the last seven years. If they hang on in these wards it will be because the opposition vote is split three ways.

Andy Jones ● 2848d45 Comments

Hi Graham, I was a candidate for Greenford Green for the Conservatives, polling jut shy of 1,000 votes.Duma Polska = Polish Pride did not really cover themselves in glory in this election, and I am convinced that they believed they would do a lot better judging by the reactions at the count of one of their candidates situated near me when taking initial indications of the votes.Unfortunately for them, they appear to have been a vanity project by a failed GLA candidate that were there solely to disrupt the election - half of their policies in the ward I contested were unworkable anyway, for example campaigning to work specifically on the issue of Polish homelessness.

Olly Rogers ● 2830d

another 4 years of a labour control council what are the people thinking of more of they do just as they like as we have seen in the past

Harold John Ward ● 2830d

Out of all those Poles, how many in total voted for PP?  I suspect that most of them followed the natives and failed to vote and of those who did, most had more sense than PP.

Graham Weeks ● 2830d

Well no wipe out then but nobody can really claim to have won the election local. Pleased to see active local councillors like David Millican and Joanna Dabrowska kept their seats.The 'x' factor was always going to be the way that EU citizens voted as Ealing had one of the highest concentrations. They don't seem to have voted as a block however, there are just under 15,000 Polish citizens registered to vote in Ealing according to the Guardian and if they co-ordinated their voting they could have determined who won in key wards.In the event it seems like there was no huge anti-Brexit sentiment among EU citizens voting in the election. It would be interesting to know why this was the case.

Andy Jones ● 2830d

The Polish party will clean up the streets. I dont think this will happen though.

Nicholas Beard ● 2835d

That isn't true.  Other races do vote Tory particularly if they are well off.

Philippa Bond ● 2835d

Yes Harold but in a sense we see very little individualism locally now and so whilst a particular conservative may do a good job locally the national picture affects everything. I want a Labour government but I see that locally our Peculiar administration is not healthy for local democracy. No transparency or regard for local people. So yes the Council election should be about local issues and years ago it was. But the national picture and the national machines of parties appear to decide everything. We rarely see local parties being creative. apart from the greens or libdems. I want to vote for locals to improve our democracy but can I when the cabinet/executive run everything.

Peter Chadburn ● 2836d

this is all about the local council elections so why have  labour bought BREXIT into the local council elections when the majority are in favour of it that's normal for them say one thing and do another the council elections are all about local issue

Harold John Ward ● 2836d

'How are Polish citizen rights reduced by Brexit?'It's a good question. The answer is broadly that we don't know the extent to which they will be reduced yet but, unless the Brexit deal involves us staying in the single market, they will be significantly curtailed.The biggest change so far for EU citizens is the introduction of uncertainty. You can't plan for your future in this country if you don't know if you will have the right to remain as long as you keep your job or if you will have access to free healthcare or your children will be allowed to attend local schools.With last night's resignation of the Home Secretary and the likely end to the Home Office's 'hostile environment' the aggressively worded letters than many expatriate workers in this country have received are likely to end and we can anticipate that the UK will be quite generous with the reciprocal rights they offer to the EU but that doesn't change the fact that EU citizens won't know exactly where they stand for two or three years. As a result they all seem to be very angry at the government.

Andy Jones ● 2836d

How are Polish citizen rights reduced by Brexit?

Graham Weeks ● 2838d

I would guess Polish Pride. The logic is that the majority of Poles are extremely upset that the citizenship rights are to be reduced by Brexit and will vote against the party that is carrying the policy through. Some of those votes that might otherwise have gone to Labour will now go to Polish Pride.

Andy Jones ● 2838d

what the hell is PP

Harold John Ward ● 2838d

I do not see the logic of how PP will help the Tories.

Graham Weeks ● 2839d

That's very bad news for Ealing resident as well we already no,  then without a strong opposition this labour council will carry on doing as they like

Harold John Ward ● 2839d

Good to see EalingToday building on my research and publishing a very good guide to the local elections. :)Looking at their more detailed information I'll stick my neck out and say that the Conservatives will be left with three seats in Hanger Hill where they will be saved thanks to Polish Pride - oh the irony.

Andy Jones ● 2839d

Rotten Boroughs. As reported ON THIS VERY WEBSITE.Also no legal action was taken against Private Eye for calling Lord Stake DRAGON Wizard Bell or whatever he is known as.The jaunt in the South of France is known as the "coke and hookers" freebie. Ealing send more people on this freebie that the vast majority of councils (as also reported ON THIS WEBSITE).Also, how was your six years working with Bell?

Scott Jones ● 2841d

I did the same searches and came up with the same results so it looks like I may owe Scott an apology. I have a distinct memory of reading that he was a Seventh Day Adventist but my powers of recollection are not what they used to be.In the broader view it makes little difference. Although there are aspects of the Mormon religion that appear slightly wacky, the adherents of neither sect appear to be bad people.  As practiced here in the UK, their social conservatism is no different to what was mainstream twenty years ago. To equate them as a stepping stone to Wahhabism as Scott does is just silly and sixth form debate club logic.He is also obviously desperate for us to ask about his repeated 'coke and hookers' references from Private Eye. I never heard anyone else suggest that Julian Bell has anything other than a blameless personal life and as two decade long subscriber to Private Eye, there has never been any suggestion to the contrary in that publication.Once again this could be something from Scott's fevered imagination but perhaps he is making a link with coverage of the MIPIM conference which Julian Bell has attended over the years. Like most large business conferences there will be trade for prostitutes and drug dealers from business people freed from the constraints of being at home but you can't equate proximity with participation. It would be a bit like saying Scott Jones of Ealing is a necrophiliac if he lived near to an undertakers.Scott obviously has a lot of hate in his heart for Julian Bell. He would be a more effective foe if he focused on the issues raised by Peter but lazy parallels and false innuendo require much less thought, knowledge and effort.

Andy Jones ● 2841d

For the record, a cursory google search would seem to confirm that Julian Bell, his wife, Hermia, and their 4 daughters are all active members in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (aka Mormons). I don't believe this has any bearing on his suitability for public office. On the other hand, his unusual housing arrangements; the lack of transparency in the Council's relationships with major property developers; and the woeful collapse of waste collection, street cleaning services and road maintenance under his watch probably should.

Peter Millman ● 2842d

Also Andrew..stay off the internet during work hours kid. You're our employee. Toodle pip xx

Scott Jones ● 2845d

AndyIt's on his councillor forms and there's plenty of interviews...him and his wife are quite senior at the Temple in Hyde Park it turns out.And, yes, someone who belongs to a cuckoo cult and holds cuckoo beliefs that have no place in modern society I kinda worry about.This is the same "cokes and hookers" chap as reported in Private Eye. I'm barking? I don't belong to a cult who think it "normal" to have several wives and whose recently written book ( as far as cult texts go) opens with an affidavit by some kiddies saying "all this happened, we swear guv!". What next?  A Wahhabi who likes to cut clits off and throw gays off roofs running the Police? You can't defend this level of crazy and you're barking for doing so son. Plus the seventh day are even more mental and hold similar beliefs to this cult. I'd rather he was morman than one of those...they're not even mental. Anyway, defend away..it's interesting to see the regressive left eat itself.

Scott Jones ● 2845d

Scott, you do realise you are starting to come across as slightly deranged?I don't recall Julian Bell ever saying he was a Mormon in a interview but do remember him talking about his association with the Seventh Day Adventists. Maybe he has switched affiliations which would kind of undermine your cult notion.He should be judged on his actions and not on your misunderstood notion of the nature of his religious beliefs. I've never heard any of his rational detractors accuse him of views that you are suggesting he might hold and they have made some fairly strong accusations against him over the year. Think you are barking ... up the wrong tree here.

Andy Jones ● 2845d

I'm just re-iterating what it says in his legal council documents as well as interviews. He's a member of a cult. A cult which hates gays (they run many "conversion clinics" - lets God the gay bit out and all that), are anti abortion (which is why Mattock Lane has been a disaster and has been dragged out so long), are racist, have MANY rape and child abuse cases against them (seems they're as bad as the Catholic Church on that one), a cult which promotes telling lies. ACTIVELY. Let alone their position on women's rights (hence you never see a female missionary/elders).I wouldn't let a Wahabi crazy member near my local council - they share similar views - so, why we're letting this crazy near the place shows how little people do any research with regards to politics and politicians. In 2018 people like this should leave the UK and find a home elsewhere. I've no time for cults and their intolerance's.

Scott Jones ● 2845d

I was merely repeating what others wrote here. I do not know him personally.

Graham Weeks ● 2845d

Graham. Are you saying that he has lied on his councillor forms and is a 7th day rather than what he states?I think i'd prefer he was a Mormon AS HE STATES IN LEGAL DOCUMENTS rather than a 7th day - heck, I'd prefer he was a Scientologist - at least they make decent films. Albeit they're obviously all actual cults and well, kinda insane. Next you'll be telling me that the earth is flat.

Scott Jones ● 2845d

and I total agree with you if there is only a small majority is normally better because it keeps them on there toes

Harold John Ward ● 2845d

We have done off the track is this discussion is about our Voting intentions. What kind of council will we get? Will a stronger Labour Council mean less transparency? Can anyone hold the faceless cabinet/executive to account? Will they just keep councillors happy by approving small local improvements? Can the Conservatives or LibDems make gains and actually stand up and challenge? Can the Polish Party affect results? For me I will Vote with the best of intentions when i know more information but i feel that despite being a Labour supporter that this council is far too aloof to govern effectively.

Peter Chadburn ● 2846d

Well if Julian Bell is a senior member of the Mormons he appears to be currently a member of two religions. I supposed you could argue he has two houses so this might be possible but I think it more likely the 'research' you refer to is bogus.You'll have a long wait for a response to a Freedom of Information request on Dickens Yard as the developer is a private company and not covered by the legislation. The Land Registry have recently put foreign ownership in the public domain so that might be a better place to try. I'm struggling to see the relevance of the enquiry. Is it that important who buys the flats? Wherever the owner is domiciled they will be renting it to a UK resident. It is a myth that foreign owned flats are more likely to be kept empty. I can only provide anecdote on Dickens Yard but the people that I know who bought there are UK residents. They say that the early release of units were good value and they have made a reasonable amount. As far as they were aware there wasn't significant foreign buying. The Hong Kong/Malaysian and Singapore buyers who snapped up units elsewhere considered Ealing too far from the centre.All this really has very little to do with Julian Bell anyway. The Council can't dictate what plans developers come up with or whom they sell their flats to. The Council may have some broad influence at a strategic level but Dickens Yard was always going to be high priced flats given its location.

Andy Jones ● 2846d

'Which is a cult that promotes telling porkies and people of colour can be touched by God if they join the cult and their skins be lightened. 'What evidence have you for what IMO is a slur on Seventh day Adventists who are orthodox in their Christianity save for observing a Saturday sabbath.

Graham Weeks ● 2846d

Well his official councillor forms say as I said...I doubt he is telling porkies. He and his partner are quite senior in the LDS according to research.Which is a cult that promotes telling porkies and people of colour can be touched by God if they join the cult and their skins be lightened. I'm awaiting FOIA on Dickens Yard - the ownership has few UK or EU citizens from what I have so far. Yes, I'm aware of nom-dom meanings. Cheers.

Scott Jones ● 2846d

Julian Bell is not a Mormon, he is a Seventh Day Adventist. I don't know much about this belief but have seen a congregation after service and it is clearly nonsense to say that women or 'persons of colour' would not adhere to this religion as they appear to predominate in the group. His religious beliefs are only relevant when they start to impinge on policy making which I am not aware that they do.It can't be Council policy to replace people with Chinese and Russian non-doms in Dickens Yard. Perhaps Scott is unaware of the precise meaning of the word but if you are non-domiciled in the UK then you live somewhere else. It may be that some of the flats have been bought by landlords from overseas but the people who live in them er.. live in the UK. To the best of my knowledge, unlike more central London developments, the majority of flats have been bought by UK residents.

Andy Jones ● 2846d

This is a first for me writing in defence of Bell. The Mormons may be a cult but membership of them appears totally irrelevant to his politics IMO. There are plenty of other reasons why he will not get my vote in this ward.

Graham Weeks ● 2846d

Ealing Council and Ealing Labour is run by a man who is senior in what can only be considered a cult.Having A London Borough run by a man with the crazy beliefs that Mormons hold shows how dis-interested and ill-informed the public is.No gay person, no woman, no person of colour would ever vote for this cult if they were aware of their beliefs. Alas, people are a tad dumb so I expect the crazies at Labour to keep hold of the borough, sell it all off and force everyone out to replace us with "interesting" Chinese and Russian non-doms as they have been for years (see Dickens Yard).

Scott Jones ● 2846d

this is the danger that we end up with North Korea in the suburbs

Peter Chadburn ● 2846d

so if the labour party get even more councillor's the more that won't worry about the people that live in Ealing just about more and more money and even less transparency then there is now

Harold John Ward ● 2846d

Yes the Ken Tram idea made a lot of us Vote for Boris. That Tram was total lunacy and being an attendee at the so called consultations was sometimes quite frustrating.

Peter Chadburn ● 2846d

Voting local tends to follow national trends. The two exceptions are the last two Tory victories in Ealing. 1990 against the national trend Ealing went Tory because for three out of their four previous years Labour had been spendthrift and alienated the electorate with huge rates rises. The next occasion was when Red Ken's silly tram for the Uxbridge road lost the vote for Labour. So barring more Corbynite idiocy I cannot see anything but an increased Labour majority.

Graham Weeks ● 2846d

Good Points Judith,This local council lack transparency and it is the strength of the Labour Block that allows the cabinet/executive to get away with so much. Ideally we would have more of a mix. I do not want to Vote Conservative as I find this government morally bankrupt. So this is the difficulty. Years ago we had a lot more independents in councils. I feel that Ealing's only hope is an influx of more radical councillors who will challenge the status quo. I will Vote but will be moving in the summer away from the area. Very sad to see the lack of transparency, accountability and incompetence that pervades in this Borough. It makes political debate quite pointless in some ways.

Peter Chadburn ● 2846d

Votes for local councillors and votes for parliamentarians need not necessarily go to the same political party. Local elections should be about local issues, how well the council is being run, how efficient and accessible are the local services etc. and not about which party is in power at Westminster, although there are obvious correlations between the two in as much as how central government disburses funds to local government. But there are other issues at stake in local government such as transparency, honesty and how easy it is to contact and receive answers from those in local government, especially when there is obvious incompetence and wrongdoing. I have often voted differently in the two types of elections, as I do not have an ideological adherence to any one party.

Judith Jaafar ● 2846d

I would suggest that most big cities worldwide lean to the left. It is not just a London-based phenomenon.

Ian Fergus ● 2847d

Your generation rather than your income seems to be a far more important determinant of how you vote. London is one of the wealthiest parts of the UK but has a below average median age.This really has been reflected in previous election results and the current composition of Ealing Council. What appears to be different this time is an extra squeeze on the Conservative vote due to Brexit alienating some core support plus a galvanisation of the EU vote which may previously had not played a significant part in the outcome.

Andy Jones ● 2847d

Graham,As a fortunate and blessed person who has a good job, house etc. i am well aware of the disparities living in London (or any city). That makes me left leaning. My Grandads were wounded at the battle of the Somme and my Dad was a Labour supporter. I always think that many in the so called middle classes forget the poverty that maybe 4 generations ago their own families suffered. Also i was at college in Middlesbrough and saw the effects of Steel closures and the changes in our industrial landscape. So maybe that is why some of us are that way inclined. The fact that i feel Ealing Council is poor and lacks transparency means that i am not a blind supporter. I was disgusted at the Iraq War and also Gordon Brown's love of Private Finance Initiative. But that is my outlook. Others may have different reasons.

Peter Chadburn ● 2847d

'It is rather strange that London, despite its wealth, has always had a leftish leaning. '    Immigration a big factor. Other races do not vote Tory - unless you count the older Poles.

Graham Weeks ● 2847d

I don't think so. What limited coverage there has been of internal Labour party politics suggests that the moderate wing of the party has managed to keep a pretty tight grip on who got nominated for councillor.The problem for the Conservatives is not really City champagne socialists but City champagne Tories who would never have dreamed of voting Labour until Brexit came along.

Andy Jones ● 2848d

Just wondering but do Momentum have any toehold in Ealing's local Labour Party?

Philip Coe ● 2848d

It is rather strange that London, despite its wealth, has always had a leftish leaning. Perhaps a mixture of traditional blue collar labour supporters coupled with the city's wealthier champagne socialists.

Philip Coe ● 2848d