Key Battlegrounds in Ealing's Local Election


Can the Conservatives defend their remaining seats in the borough?

The local elections taking place on 3 May look set to be a challenging one for the Conservative party in Ealing borough.

Polls are suggesting there has been a swing to Labour since the last election in 2014 and the Liberal Democrats will be hoping to make ground in one of the most pro-Remain local authority areas in the country. With EU citizens having the vote, unlike in the General Election and the EU Referendum, many local Conservatives are concerned that their party will be the subject of a backlash due to Brexit.

The bookmakers are currently making the contest for Wandsworth Borough neck and neck between Labour and the Conservatives, a change of control there would be a major blow to Theresa May. The possibility of a complete wipe out of the Conservatives in Ealing has been raised by some but as the analysis below shows this would require an even bigger swing to Labour than that need for them to take Wandsworth.

All of the wards held by the Conservatives are in areas around Ealing town. They currently hold 12 seats compared to 53 for Labour and 4 for the Liberal Democrats. EalingToday.co.uk has done an analysis of the votes in the key wards which shows the swing needed for Labour and the Liberal Democrats to make gains.

All wards in Ealing contain three seats with each voter being able to select three candidates. In our analysis we have ranked each seat within a ward 1,2 or 3 depending on the size of the majority of the sitting councillor over the closest candidate from an opposition party and calculated the swing needed. Normally the seat designated '1' would require the biggest swing to be taken. For the purpose of the analysis we have calculated the swing just on the basis of that needed by the best performing opposition party in the ward last time out.

 

Swing Require in Conservative Held Wards in Ealing
Ward (Seat) Swing Needed Result if Swing Achieved
Ealing Common (1) 0.6% Lib Dem gain
Northfields (3) 1.7% Labour gain
Cleveland (2) 2.5% Labour gain
Ealing Common (2) 3.1% Lib Dem gain
Northfields (2) 3.1% Labour gain
Ealing Common (3) 4.5% Lib Dem hold
Ealing Broadway (3) 7.2% Labour gain
Hanger Hill (3) 9.8% Labour gain
Ealing Broadway (2) 10.7% Labour gain
Northfields (1) 11.1% Labour gain
Ealing Broadway (1) 11.3% Labour gain
Hanger Hill (2) 13.0% Labour gain
Hanger Hill (1) 14.6% Labour gain

Ward By Ward Analysis

Northfield

The Conservatives hold all three seats in this ward and look highly vulnerable in at least two for which a swing of just 3.1% is necessary for Labour to win. In the third seat the high personal vote achieved by David Millican, who is standing again makes the swing needed to take the seat held by him much higher. The Conservatives may also benefit from the lack of a UKIP candidate this time out. The Greens outperformed the Liberal Democrats in 2014 when fielding a full slate of candidates. This time they are standing just one hoping to gain the third vote of supporters of other parties.

The ward has a very significant proportion of voters that are EU passport holders from other countries at 18.2% according to the 2011 census. This number is likely to have risen markedly since that time. Even though most of these residents were not allowed to vote in the EU Referendum, the ward had one of the highest pro-Remain votes in the country at 71%

Northfield Ward Nominated Candidates - May 2018
Fay Block Labour
Fabio Conti Conservative
Paul Driscoll Labour
Gavin Hughes Liberal Democrats
Leslie Hurst Liberal Democrats
Ian Kingston Labour
David Millican Conservative
John Mitchell Liberal Democrats
Darren Moore Green
Theresa Mullins Conservative

Northfield Ward Election Result - May 2014
Candidate’s name Description Votes Elected
MILLICAN David Conservative
1944
Yes
MULLINS Theresa Maria Conservative
1655
Yes
REEN Mark Ian Conservative
1594
Yes
TOMLINSON Anna Janina Labour
1484
SMITH Peter Labour
1449
VARMA Surinder Nath Labour
1220
CHAPMAN Nicholas Andrew Green Party Lead Candidate
703
DE LA MOTTE Bruni The Green Party
615
ANTHONY Simon Ronald The Green Party
582
KENDRICK Susan Margaret Liberal Democrat
389
CALLAGHAN Martin James Liberal Democrat
384
WALSH Ray UKIP
305
GETTLESON Mike Liberal Democrat
265
Total  
9828


Ealing Common

Ealing Common ward currently has two Conservative councillors and one Liberal Democrat. Assuming that a swing to the Liberal Democrats means that their incumbent councillor is re-elected then the Liberal Democrats need only a 4.5% swing from the Conservatives to take the other two seats. They will be hoping that Brexit is a big factor in the election as the ward voted by 70% to remain in the EU and 17.7% of residents holding passports from other EU countries according to the 2011 census.

For Labour to take the two seats currently held by the Conservatives they would need a swing to them of 6.5%

The Conservatives may benefit from a lack of a UKIP candidate this time out.

Ealing Common Ward Nominated Candidates - May 2018
Praveen Anand Labour
Jon Ball Liberal Democrats
Joanna Dabrowska Conservative
Abdi Duale Labour
Barry Hartness Conservative
Sindy Jassal Labour
Craig O'Donnell Liberal Democrats
Timothy Patten Conservative
Mark Sanders Liberal Democrats
Daniel Van Der Spuy Green
Alex Zychowski Independent

 

Ealing Common Ward Election Result - May 2014
Candidate’s name Description Votes Elected
REECE Roz Conservative
1388
yes
DABROWSKA Joanna Klara Conservative
1357
yes
BALL Jon Timothy Ashby Liberal Democrat
1344
yes
SCOTT David Alexander Hill Conservative
1231
HOLLIS Jenni Liberal Democrat
1144
ASHWOOD Tom Labour
1037
METCALFE John Labour
958
O'DONNELL Craig William Liberal Democrat
927
RICE Miriam Labour
895
ROSSER Michael Lewis The Green Party
557
TOY Angela Mary UKIP
413
Total  
10208

Cleveland Ward

The Conservatives hold just one seat in this ward and will do well to hang on to it with just a 2.5% swing to Labour required for them to make a gain here. The Greens will also be looking at the ward with interest as they outperformed the Lib Dems last time out.

Cleveland Ward Nominated Candidates - May 2018
Sitarah Anjum Labour
Jo Baldwin-Trott Liberal Democrats
Linda Burke Labour
Ian Douglas Green
Francesco Fruzza Liberal Democrats
Isobel Grant Conservative
Carlo Lusuardi Labour
Liz Paice Conservative
Ian Proud Conservative
Athena Zissimos Liberal Democrats

Cleveland Ward Election Result - May 2014
Candidate's name Description Votes Elected
MURRAY Lynne Labour
1826
yes
PROUD Ian Philip Conservative
1766
yes
RODGERS David Labour
1641
yes
DIOGO Pedro Labour
1592
 
WILLIAMS Vanessa Julie Conservative
1578
 
SALISBURY John Robert Conservative
1530
 
SUMMERSGILL Freya Caroline The Green Party
804
 
FRUZZA Francesco Rossano Alberto Liberal Democrat
748
 
MAYCOCK John Bernard Liberal Democrat
449
 
SANDERS Humaira Liberal Democrat
422
 
Total  
10460
 

Ealing Broadway

Three Conservative councillors hold the three seats in this ward having won substantial majorities in 2014. A lack of a UKIP candidate may help them defend the ward and Labour need a challenging 11.3% swing to take all of the seats. The Greens will also be hoping for a gain here having outperformed the Liberal Democrats in 2014. The big concern for the Conservatives will be how important Brexit is in the vote. The ward was the second most pro-EU in the borough during the referendum with 74% voting to remain and 18% of the population held a passport from another EU country in 2011.

Ealing Broadway Ward Nominated Candidates - May 2018
Colin Bastin Labour
Meena Hans Green
Seema Kumar Conservative
Lainya Gillian Offside-Keivani Labour
Joyce Onstad Liberal Democrats
Nick Pearce Labour
Patrick Salaun Liberal Democrats
Toran Jorane Shaw Liberal Democrats
Alexander Paul Thomas Stafford Conservative
Anthony Christopher Bowes Young Conservative

Ealing Broadway Election Result - May 2014
Candidate’s name Description Votes Elected
STAFFORD Alexander Paul Conservative
1872
Yes
YOUNG Anthony Christopher Bowes Conservative
1843
Yes
KUMAR Seema Conservative
1614
Yes
BLACKER Liberty Arabella Labour
1123
ANDERSON Robert Labour
1114
CULHANE John Labour
1091
HANS Meena The Green Party
682
BROOKS Dorothy Anne Liberal Democrat
524
SALAUN Patrick Liberal Democrat
442
CARR Jon UKIP
394
SANDERS Mark Kevin Liberal Democrat
391
Total  
10390



Hanger Hill

This is the safest Conservative ward in the borough and a massive 14.6% swing would be needed to take all three seats including that currently held by Joy Morrissey the party's candidate for Westminster in the last General Election. Their main concern, as in other wards in the borough, will be the high level of support for Remain at 71% and the high concentration of EU citizens in the ward which was at 18.3% at the time of the last census. The impact of this might be somewhat mitigated by Duma Polska or Polish Pride fielding a full slate of candidates in the ward although the impact of this is difficult to predict.

Hanger Hill Ward Nominated Candidates - May 2018
Shabir Ahmed Labour
Kassem Mohammad Baksh Labour
Tomasz Przemyslaw Chwesiuk Duma Polska = Polish Pride
Kate Crossland Green
Maria Vasso Aspasia Gerakaris-Michanitzis Liberal Democrats
Anna Maria Kolczynska Duma Polska = Polish Pride
Tony Miller Liberal Democrats
Joy Morrissey Conservative
Gregory Stafford Conservative
Nigel Robert Sumner Conservative
Catherine Ann Wallace Labour
Adam Wiktorski Duma Polska = Polish Pride
Jane Louise Wright Liberal Democrats

Candidate’s name Description Votes Elected
MORRISSEY Joy Rebekah Conservative
1872
Yes
SUMNER Nigel Robert Conservative
1829
Yes
STAFFORD Gregory James Conservative
1801
Yes
KENT Amanda Labour
1134
HUSSAIN Amran Labour
943
WOODGATE Paul John Labour
879
VISARIA Ruby The Green Party
560
BROOKS Cameron David Mackenzie Liberal Democrat
421
WEST Peter Alexander Liberal Democrat
412
MILLER Tony Liberal Democrat
411
Total  
10236

Polling stations through the borough will be open on 3 May from 7am till 10pm .

If you are not sure which ward you are in or where you need to go to vote Ealing Council have a polling station finder which will supply you this information if you enter your post code.